The New Untouchables

Op-Ed Columnist - The New Untouchables - NYTimes.com

Tom Friedman on who has the advantage in the current workforce. What value-added are you bringing to your political science degree? Here is a nice summary from the end:

As the Harvard University labor expert Lawrence Katz explains it: “If you think about the labor market today, the top half of the college market, those with the high-end analytical and problem-solving skills who can compete on the world market or game the financial system or deal with new government regulations, have done great. But the bottom half of the top, those engineers and programmers working on more routine tasks and not actively engaged in developing new ideas or recombining existing technologies or thinking about what new customers want, have done poorly. They’ve been much more exposed to global competitors that make them easily substitutable.”

Those at the high end of the bottom half — high school grads in construction or manufacturing — have been clobbered by global competition and immigration, added Katz. “But those who have some interpersonal skills — the salesperson who can deal with customers face to face or the home contractor who can help you redesign your kitchen without going to an architect — have done well.”

Just being an average accountant, lawyer, contractor or assembly-line worker is not the ticket it used to be. As Daniel Pink, the author of “A Whole New Mind,” puts it: In a world in which more and more average work can be done by a computer, robot or talented foreigner faster, cheaper “and just as well,” vanilla doesn’t cut it anymore. It’s all about what chocolate sauce, whipped cream and cherry you can put on top. So our schools have a doubly hard task now — not just improving reading, writing and arithmetic but entrepreneurship, innovation and creativity.

View From Inside the Great Depression

Talking Business - Benjamin Roth’s View From Inside the Great Depression - NYTimes.com

This is a very interesting piece by Joe Nocera in today's NYT. I think I'll buy the book.

Here are some pictures to go with the article. They show the decline and then rise circa 1937-38 of unemployment and the rebound of the stock market followed by a second large fall. Nocera has a nice discussion of the policy issues behind that increase of unemployment then and the implications for the current recovery.

And compare with now: (click on graph for full size)

2 Americans Share Economics Nobel

2 Americans Share Economics Nobel - NYTimes.com

Our Big Ten colleague at Indiana, Elinor Ostrom, has won the Nobel Prize in economics. She is the first woman laureate ever for the economics prize. And she is the fourth political scientist to win or share the Nobel.

Bravo!

Teaching Students to Sift Mountains of Data

Teaching Students to Sift Mountains of Data - NYTimes.com

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. — It is a rare criticism of elite American university students that they do not think big enough. But that is exactly the complaint from some of the largest technology companies and the federal government.

At the heart of this criticism is data. Researchers and workers in fields as diverse as bio-technology, astronomy and computer science will soon find themselves overwhelmed with information. Better telescopes and genome sequencers are as much to blame for this data glut as are faster computers and bigger hard drives.

Political science doesn't yet have this problem, but there is no reason we can't or shouldn't go there. Every campaign contribution, every precinct vote return, every roll call vote. Every international conflict event. Every foreign investment. Every word of political news coverage. Every blog post. For all time.

And if you want to get teched up for graduate school in any field, or you want to move to silicon valley and make a billion, learn to handle large data.

For Twitter fans, search #hadoop to find fellow travelers who you can follow and who will point to you events and resources. Take a look at #mapreduce as well.

Wise Muddling Through

Op-Ed Columnist - Wise Muddling Through - NYTimes.com

Nice-- and a nice allusion to "The Science of Muddling Through" article you read.

Why We Must Ration Health Care - NYTimes.com

Why We Must Ration Health Care - NYTimes.com

This is a national policy issue, but is also implicit at the state level with Badger Care, for example.

If the amount we can spend on health care is not infinite, then how do we allocate a finite resource? Here is one way of thinking through those issues.

But are they politically acceptable? Which candidate will run on this platform? What constituent will vote for such a candidate?

Backward we go in Dairyland - JSOnline

Backward we go in Dairyland - JSOnline

Full WPRI Article

WPRI is a "free market oriented" think tank, so assume a particular point of view. However, they produce analysis based on data and thoughtful argument, rather than empty rhetoric. Whatever the solutions might look like, I think the problems pointed out in this article are central to the future of the state. Republican candidate for Governor, Scott Walker, tweeted both these pieces. (On Twitter Walker is @scottkwalker and Mark Newman is @StrongWisconsin . So far as I know Gov. Doyle isn't on Twitter.)

Gov. Doyle's office responds:

Asked to respond, the office of Gov. Doyle, a Democrat, dismissed the Alabama comparison. Wisconsin ranked 24th for median wages, while Alabama came in 45th, in a 2008 Bureau of Labor Statistics survey that covers all occupations, Doyle's office noted.

While the WPRI points out that Wisconsin had zero job growth from 2000 to 2005, Doyle's office said that period includes the 2001 recession, which predates Doyle's stint as governor. Doyle took office in January 2003.

"Job growth improved beginning in 2002," Doyle's office said, citing BLS statistics that show 2.1% job growth from 2002-'05 and 1.5% in 2005-'07.

The governor's office concedes that Wisconsin job growth lagged the national average under his watch, but said Wisconsin "is comparable to other Great Lakes states in recent history."

"They cherry-pick statistics," Doyle spokesman Lee Sensenbrenner said of the WPRI report. "This is a right-wing group that's putting together an attack."

National Journal Online - The Six Most Dysfunctional State Governments

National Journal Online - The Six Most Dysfunctional State Governments

Fortunately, Wisconsin isn't on this list (yet).

University students not shy about asking profs to reconsider grades

University students not shy about asking profs to reconsider grades

This article is more than a little harsh on students, given that my experience at least is that they are describing a distinct minority yet the story makes it sound like the majority.

However, I'd be interested in your reaction and thoughts. There are a couple of quotes from the article that I think DO hit home, even if there is a good bit of exaggeration:

"The point is that we are in the business of higher education, not mediocre education," Moses wrote in an e-mail while traveling in Europe. "This sounds elitist but the challenge of global competition to the U.S. way of life does not call for trying hard, it calls for performance"

And:

"Too many students don't know why they are in college," engineering physics professor Moses wrote in his e-mail. "Too many don't know how to study. Too many have completely incorrect expectations. It is a system that is badly broken and not for a single reason. It is a system problem. The bottom line is that the U.S. future in the so-called knowledge economy is doomed with the students we are now producing as graduates. Companies locate factories in China and call centers in India not only because the workers work for less. The workers are also better qualified. If that is an exaggeration today, it will certainly become reality in a decade."

I doubt that my generation had any better idea of why we went to college than does yours. (Faculty often forget that.) Many of us had a great time socially while doing ok in classes. Some lost their way and flunked out. And a few found direction and excelled (not just in grades but in a focus and direction for their lives.) I don't think faculty can command students to be in the third category-- you have to find it for yourself. I don't think I've encountered an example of the third category begging for grades, and perhaps surprisingly I rarely get begging from those who are failing.

Take a look at the comments on the Cap Times article as well. An interesting set of perspectives.

Pollster.com: Palin's Base and Beyond

Three poll related analyses, two mostly inside the party and one outside.

Pollster.com: Palin's Base

Palin's Problem Outside the Base

Palin: First Reactions

Let's not dwell too much on this story-- just hard not to pay some attention.

Palin's career one surprise after another: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

Palin's career one surprise after another: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

Another example of great local coverage. This is a long look at Palin's history in Alaska politics written as only local reporters are able to do.

Palin returns to work, defends decision to resign: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

Palin returns to work, defends decision to resign: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

When you want to learn about a national politician, it is good to go to their home-state papers. The Anchorage Daily News has had superb coverage of Governor Palin since before she was the VP nominee. Last summer it was great to read accounts of her performance as governor that were written prior to the glare of the national media (and the distortion that brings-- both pro and con) and stories written before the reporters had a clue she would become a national figure.

Now in the wake of her resignation announcement, it is good to go back to those who know her best for the local story.

Sarah Palin in vanityfair.com

Todd S. Purdum on Sarah Palin | vanityfair.com

This article was the talk of the week until Gov. Palin upstaged it with her resignation announcement today.

Long, but interesting look at Palin and the GOP splits.

Up Front: Closed Meeting Budget

The budget was passed by both houses after extended private negotiations among the leadership and individual members. In this segment of Up Front, Jay Heck, executive director for Common Cause Wisconsin, complains about the lack of openness and transparency in this process. See the video here.

I expect many legislators would argue that open meetings stifle the negotiation necessary to reach agreement on complex issues, such as the budget. Legislators need to give as well as get and public meetings make that difficult. The result might well be stalemate rather than transparency.

Others, such as Common Cause, would say that is exactly the problem. The private deals are not defensible on their own merits, and so can only be agreed too when the public is banned from watching. Or to put a conservative spin on it, the growth of government comes from the unwillingness of legislators to ever give up "goodies" and both earmarks and protected programs are the consequence. This holds whichever party is in control because the constituent pressures are so strong when it comes to local benefits.

My question: would "real" open meetings resolve anything? Would private deals just move to other venues (cell phone calls?). Are private goods given to individual legislators the necessary lubricant for legislation? And consider the alternative: Could a member of the Wisconsin legislature win election and reelection by consistently refusing to deal for projects or policies that are particularly beneficial to their districts? Should they try?

Up Front: Gov. Doyle's Job Rating and GOP Opportunity

Up Front's second story of the week. Governor Doyle's job approval ratings have fallen and two polls produced opposite results for trial heats against Scott Walker and Mark Neumann. Where does this polling put the Governor for a 2010 reelection campaign? What opportunities does this present to the GOP challengers? See the video here.

Let's take a look at Gov. Doyle's job approval ratings that are behind the comments on Up Front. First, overall approval and disapproval:

The amazing bit of this chart is how approval peaks just in time for the reelection in 2006. Up to the fall of 2006 the Governor's net approval was negative. It was the campaign that boosted him, whether through the quality of his campaign, a failure of Mark Green's campaign, or national pro-Democratic forces. Since the reelection, however, Gov. Doyle's approval has stayed in net-negative territory, converging only for a moment in late 2008 and since then plunging.

The decline in approval has come among both independents and Democrats. Republicans have never had a high opinion of the governor. But the drop among Dems as well as inds should be worrisome to the reelection staff.

As the story says, this opens an opportunity for the GOP, but it is one they have to find a way to exploit in the campaign, not one they can take for granted. Likewise, the Governor can campaign on handling difficult situations which in 2006 at least the public was willing to accept, even after the very difficult budgets of 2003-2004.

Question: How would you frame the campaign for either Doyle or the GOP? What is the strength for Doyle and what is the weakness for the GOP?