Three poll related analyses, two mostly inside the party and one outside.
Let's not dwell too much on this story-- just hard not to pay some attention.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
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About Me
- Charles Franklin
- I am co-founder of Pollster.com and founder of PollsAndVotes.com. I am also a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, where I teach statistical analysis of polls, public opinion and election results. Data visualization is central to my approach to analysis. Email me!
Many people are quickly writing Sarah Palin off as committing Political suicide. Though this is easy to assume, I do not feel that this is the case. In fact, I feel that Palin's political career is far from over. I think that it was a poor decision to resign as she likely turned off some potential voters, but the people who are most turned off were likely already turned off by Palin in general. The numbers still show her being in the top of the Republican candidates for 2012 and thus show that although she may have angered the people who already did not favor her, she had little impact on people who already strongly support her.
ReplyDelete- Luke D
As far as the next presidency, Itoounderstand that Palin is a contender, and for good reason; woman, independent attitude, relateswith common people, etc. I am not sure though that by her going on with McCain, that she didn't hurt herself there too. That is, by accepting McCain's tap. I can see her as tryng to learn as much as possible in two years, and maybe all local politicians aren't cut out for the big gig. Maybe local is her place?
ReplyDeleteIf Palin does end up making a 2010 run at the Presidency, it's going to be an uphill battle for sure. Getting out of the primary is going to be difficult enough for her, not too mention going up against an incumbent Obama. She certainly has her dedicated followers, but I have a difficult time seeing her gaining widespread, bipartisan appeal. She is a divider, not a uniter, which is what makes her a great local politician as the above post mentioned. Whether or not she fits on the national scale as a Presidential candidate is for the electorate to decide, if she indeed chooses to run.
ReplyDelete-Eric Maloney
It's kind of wild to watch a person resign for a position of power which is based on making a commitment to better their state continue to climb favorably in the polls. As a Democrat, I will never fully understand the silliness that goes into the thought process by many Palin supporters, especially now. As President Obama's approval rating seems to be on a slow decline, Palin seems uneffected by the slowly dropping stock market and economic turmoil. This beauty queen sure nows how to win over the Republican party. I mean after all, she is yet to have a sex scandal like her other potential 2012 Presidental contenders. I think all of this hype is short lived. I strongly believe the numbers will go down, and Palin will be forgotten in the grand scheme of history, unless her resignation leads to a killer talk show, then maybe not. Maybe I would be in favor for her interviewing celebrities rather then making policy. But for now, she should enjoy her new found stardom, and the constant tabloids that goes with it.
ReplyDeleteGena W.
Surprisingly enough, I think that these articles call attention to a valid point. Just because this resignation may seem absurd to some, myself included, that decision does not necessarily directly correlate with a complete destruction of her image and ability to gain the Republican ticket in the upcoming presidential election. Some of these articles provided real statistical numbers (how reliable, I am not certain) showing that her numbers immediately after the press conference did not show plummeting numbers in her support for running in the next presidential election.
ReplyDeleteThis is politics at its finest, or possibly not-so-finest, moments and that events like this do not mean automatic political suicide. But I think that this shows a definitely question in whether the country can trust Palin to make unforeseeable decisions like this if she should be voted into office. Though I am not supporter of Palin, I would be worried even if I considered myself to be affiliated with the Republican Party in that she just seems too "flaky" for this high of a position. Though her argument tried to stress her ability to save Alaskan taxpayer dollars due to recent media investigations and other issues due to her rise in popularity and essentially, the start of her Hollywood star power, I wonder if anyone really sees this as a good enough reason to "bail" on her office that people counted her to carry out as the face/leader of their state. I, for one, would be angry if I were an Alaskan citizen and had to deal with this sudden upheaval of Palin's administration. Actions like this worry me and make me question, who's to say she won't do this again? The answer is...we don't know for sure...and that is frightening. This idea that she may have resigned in order to possibly take the same route as Obama and find time to raise money and gain stronger grassroots supports to me seems irresponsible. It's the idea that I'll quit something to move on to something better before I finish the job I signed up to do.
In the end, I hope these polls change. I realize that she is a dynamic political figure that may be well-suited for the local level, as she has definitely demonstrated her ability to identify with constituents from her hometown and state, but I don't believe she is the best candidate for the GOP ticket. Actions like these make her seem untrustworthy, irresponsible, and flaky, qualities that are for obvious reasons make her seem unqualified for the presidency.