Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Friday, July 2, 2010

PS427: A big day for economic analysis

The latest employment data are out this morning, prompting a binge of analysis.

The NYT's Economix blog is particularly active with some excellent analysis and graphics. Here are the links:

Is job growth being underestimated? Maybe.  This from the day before the new data arrived.

Is the recovery losing steam? Gloom.  Note the focus on employment. There is much more to the economy than just jobs, so this is a rather narrow view. Looking more broadly might be worse or better, but at least look.

Comparing the recession with the previous ones since 1970.  This includes one of the most elegant and clear graphics showing the depth of the current recession in terms of jobs lost.

Long-term unemployment is the distinctive mark of the current recession. Is this due to structural change in the economy, or as some argue the continuing extension of unemployment insurance? Would more have found a (probably lower paying) job if they didn't have continuing unemployment benefits to fall back on? Will the current GOP blockage of yet another extension of unemployment benefits ultimately force some to take a job less good than they would wish? And for bonus points, as a political matter, can GOP candidates successfully campaign on having "stood against more deficit spending" if it means they did so by blocking extended unemployment benefits? Can Dems campaign for extending benefits even if they must therefore take the blame for more deficit spending?

The 1981-82 recession was the worst post-war recession until this one. Is this one worse, even though unemployment rates hit higher peaks in 1982?  And here is the full report that was the basis of the NYT Economix report.