Mad Pol

PS427: Graduate School ROI

2011-07-23T17:00:00.000-05:00

Our PS427 class has been discussing state support for higher education as a policy problem for the last few weeks. Higher ed is a major part of Wisconsin's budget, as it is for virtually all states. But costs rise faster than states have been willing to fund, so tuition rises faster than inflation and states contribute proportionately less and less to university budgets (17.5% at Madison now.) And yet "customers" line up for universities, both relatively inexpensive state schools and super expensive private elites. One obvious solution is to get the government out and let the market determine tuition and university finances. Yet the reluctance to see UW-Madison gain even partial independence from the state shows that lawmakers, Republican and Democrat alike, are very reluctant to give up government run higher education. Apparently both parties still see some public purpose to be served in state-sponsored higher education.

And so our class has spent time looking at alternative higher education models--- recently focusing on 3 year degree programs and online classes as alternatives to the traditional four-year residential model (with summers off). Many policy makers in white papers propose 3 year and online solutions, but interestingly very few students in this class want a three year program. My read (not necessarily their's) is that the economic advantages of a three year program don't match the social and personal advantages of four years in college (plus some summers for travel or internships.)

Last week we spent some time on a New York Times article on the costs of law school and the recent drop in legal jobs. (That article is here.)

This round we look at other graduate degrees. The ROI link above shows that most graduate programs do provide a positive return on investment, though some do not. A wise customer would take that into account in choosing whether or not to attend graduate school.

Political leaders push the role of an educated workforce on business creation and desirable jobs. If so, then states surely have an incentive to promote university graduate programs that provide these workplace advantages. At the same time, potential students should make reasoned calculations about the value of those advanced degrees.

Finally, one might ask why four year bachelor's programs fail to provide the job skills and benefits that currently are only available in graduate programs. Specialization and focus is one answer. General education requirements in most bachelor's programs mean undergraduates take many classes outside their major, indeed the majority of their credits are taken outside their major. At UW, a political science major takes just 30 of 120 total credits in the major, investing only a quarter of their time in the chosen field. Of course one reason for this ratio is that all fields require skills other than their own. Political science students should lean some mathematics, some languages, learn how to write, get a little historical background and perhaps even some science classes to understand politics and society. I'm not arguing those are wasted. Indeed, I argue the contrary-- a bachelor's degree is exactly the place to acquire a range of necessary skills NOT focused only on a single major. But it does mean the depth of education in the major must necessarily be less than in a graduate program devoted solely to a single field. (I'd add that many students have little idea what they want from a college degree and so drift through their four years acquiring credits but not attempting to develop real intellectual capital. That's sad but probably inevitable.)

Graduate programs, in contrast build on the general skills acquired in the undergraduate degree and focus on the specific skills needed in a particular profession. The return on investment data show this is often quite rewarding.

Of course a bright, focused and motivated undergraduate can become super well qualified for the job market in just four years (or less in the case of famous drop-outs such as Bill Gates.) But they do that by taking advantage of the undergraduate years in ways much deeper than most of their classmates. Alas, they remain the exception not the rule.

This second article from the Times today focuses on the MA as the new BA. The opening description of the poorly employed history major makes my point. So many students acquire the degree with no idea why or what it will allow them to do. And then seem surprised when their aimless education has left them with few options. I must say that a similarly aimless masters degree will not help much.

In contrast, it is not uncommon for UW students to start successful businesses while still undergraduates, even in political science. A small percentage, but it happens every year. I celebrate their achievements. We need more. And I am so proud of our grads working on Capitol Hill, the CIA, the military, the Wisconsin legislature, media, businesses and interest groups. Ask any one of them and they will say they had to start at the bottom but that serious devotion to their profession has been key to advancement. Who knew? Hard work matters.

And to close on a lighter note: PhD Comics.

Beyond a default: Catastrophic calculations

2011-07-15T22:44:00.000-05:00

Beyond a default: Catastrophic calculations - The Washington Post

Ezra Klein does a good job in the story above showing how the Federal debt and Treasury Bills are linked to many other things in the economy.

And the story below shows that Gov. Walker and his staff are taking the consequences of default seriously as well. This bit shows that beyond ideology there is understanding of consequences.

Walker Plans Ahead in Case U.S. Fails to Resolve Debt Crisis

Public Wants Changes in Entitlements, Not Changes in Benefits

2011-07-07T22:33:00.001-05:00

Public Wants Changes in Entitlements, Not Changes in Benefits | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

Where is the consistency in public opinion in this?

PS427: N.J. Legislature Moves to Cut Benefits for Public Workers

2011-06-23T21:28:00.000-05:00

N.J. Legislature Moves to Cut Benefits for Public Workers - NYTimes.com

This is very interesting on several levels.

First, Gov. Christie was the originator of GOP efforts to cut public employee benefits and salaries following his election in 2009, a year before the GOP landslide of 2010. He has been a leader in the party and a true policy innovator.

Second, both houses of the state legislature are controlled by the Democrats, not the GOP. So for this to pass Christie had to win the backing of some Dems. (He did the same last year in passing the budget.) Think about what an achievement that is.

Third, NJ is one of the most heavily unionized states, so this isn't for lack of a union organization in the state.

BTW: Gov. Christie will be on Meet the Press Sunday morning. Should be an interesting interview.

PS427: 3-year college degree programs not catching on

2011-06-21T13:27:00.000-05:00

3-year college degree programs not catching on - The Washington Post

This is a common proposal for higher ed reform, but this article is typical of assessments of how well it works. Badly. Not to say it can't be done. Just that very few students choose to do it when it is offered.

PS427: It's all about jobs

2011-06-20T20:54:00.000-05:00

That was the theme of the 2010 gubernatorial campaign, the January legislative special session, and a nice article by Craig Gilbert based on an interview with Governor Walker in today's JSOnline.com.

So what about jobs and job creation? Let's get the fundamentals right: If this were simple or formulaic, everyone would do it. And to be really serious about this requires a graduate degree in economics or similar expertise.

But let's not let that stop us. Today we'll launch a series of posts on various aspects of job creation. To be clear this can't possibly cover everything. But I think we can explore a variety of aspects of job creation.

We start with tech and non-tech jobs in medium to smaller cities with a series of short articles.

Small City Job Creation

High tech in the deep south BTW: this is my home region-- beset by poverty but with surprising economic resurgence along I-85 (though not in my hometown, 40 miles from the nearest Interstate.)

Epicenters of high tech (note Milwaukee)

New Growth from Old Industry

Economic rebound

PS427: Taking the “State” Out of State Universities

2011-06-20T17:53:00.001-05:00

Can a state university be "privatized"?

Taking the “State” Out of State Universities: June 2011

There are unique obligations that come with state universities: educating in-state students, for example. Holding down tuition for in-state taxpayers. Possibly providing an excellent education, though I hear that mentioned somewhat less often.

This and the previous post raise the possibility (in my mind at least) of two potential directions. One is greater autonomy, much as the New Badger Partnership in Wisconsin proposed. That is short of full privatization but with some gains in administrative and management flexibility, yet with loss of state legislative oversight. A second option goes in the opposite direction: more state mandates over faculty workload and "student credits per faculty member". The driving notion here is that left to themselves, universities overpay and underwork their faculty and strong state oversight should require increased teaching loads (and perhaps say more about curriculum content, such as more applied or job-relevant courses.) Before the Irish economic bust, some elements of this "business responsive curriculum" was credited with drawing major tech firms to Ireland.

What I've not seen acknowledged or considered is the potential for a growing divide between public and private universities. Privates can price themselves completely out of some markets-- such as remedial programs to help students deficient in high school skills nevertheless complete college, one goal that seems special to public schools. Privates, immune to legislative influence, can simply position themselves for whatever the markets for students (on one hand) and faculty (on the other) select and optimize. Arguably for decades Berkeley and Stanford have been peers, one public and one private. But can new models of publics maintain this equality?

PS427: Reconstructing Higher Education

2011-06-20T17:24:00.001-05:00

See this article from the NCSL-- National Conference of State Legislatures. They are bipartisan and a great source of state policy information. We'll use their material frequently.

Reconstructing Higher Education: June 2011

Wisconsin is not the only state struggling with how public colleges and universities can have both flexibility and public oversight. This article gives one overview of some of the issues.

And for an eerie parallel to Wisconsin's recent issues, consider this from Oregon:

U. of Oregon’s President, Chided by State Board, Gets One-Year Contract Extension

June 17, 2011, 12:46 pm

Richard W. Lariviere, president of the University of Oregon, was offered just a one-year extension of his current contract by the State Board of Higher Education, on the condition that he become more of a team player and stop trying to win his university more independence from the state, The Oregonian reported. His effort is opposed by the Oregon University System, which is promoting its own plan to give more regulatory freedom to all of its institutions.

PS427: The Budget is Where Reality Happens

2011-06-13T13:47:00.000-05:00

The Legislative Fiscal Bureau just released three reports on the budget legislation coming from Joint Finance.

The links are:

Property Tax Memo

General Fund Budget

State Taxes and Fees

All are worth reading.

PS427: Thirty Years of Falling Behind

2011-06-13T13:27:00.001-05:00

For 20 years, from 1960 to 1980, Wisconsin and Minnesota were twins in real income. Neither state outpaced the other in real income growth per capita.

But in the summer of 1981 that changed. Since then Minnesota has enjoyed faster income growth, and the gap between the states has widened steadily for 30 years.

Given we were twins for 20 years, what changed in 1981 that made Minnesota the economic power and Wisconsin the slower growth sibling?

Is Minnesota doing something right or Wisconsin doing something wrong? How might state government affect this difference, and why hasn't it been addressed over 30 years? Or if private business is the solution, why have they failed to keep up with our neighbors?

PS427: Be Bold Wisconsin

2010-08-01T19:06:00.001-05:00

UpFront with Mike Gousha had a great segment on economic development today with Cory Nettles (former Dem Commerce Secretary) and Bill McCoshen (former Rep Commerce Secretary). They have been part of a new study producing a set of recommendations, including a complete restructuring of the Commerce Department to focus it on economic development.

Here is the link to the segment as it aired.

And here is a link to the "web extra" that extends the conversation.

The full report is here. Read every word and comment below.

Compare with the Wisconsin Technology Council report you read a few weeks ago.

PS 427: Wisconsin: Land of Beer, Cheese, and…Startups

2010-07-25T13:36:00.001-05:00

After more pessimistic posts on Wisconsin's economic climate, here is a visible positive post on the startup culture in Madison and vicinity.

Wisconsin: Land of Beer, Cheese, and…Startups

Can Wisconsin really compete with the Twin Cities, Chicago or Silicon Valley?

If you were recruiting talent to a startup here, how would you do it?

What aspects of the state would you promote? Which would you try to ignore?

How can state government make Wisconsin more attractive to your employees?

PS427: Technology Council pushes for 'bold action'

2010-07-12T11:40:00.001-05:00

All the candidates for Governor are talking about creating jobs. The Wisconsin Technology Council has just released a report on policy changes needed to address the problem of encouraging the growth of high-tech jobs in the state.

The Journal Sentinel has the story:

Technology Council pushes for 'bold action' - JSOnline

And here is the link to the Council's full report:

The report is here.

Based on the report, what do you think is possible for the next governor to accomplish on this front? What problems might arise in adopting those policies?

PS427: Wisconsin Budget Outlook

2010-07-11T17:12:00.000-05:00

Two good sources for analysis of the Wisconsin state budget.

On the right, Wisconsin Policy Research Institute:

Wisconsin's State Budget Outlook: The Worst is Yet to Come

On the left, Wisconsin Council on Children and Families:

Wisconsin Budget Basics Guide.

For NEXT week, July 18, base your weekly memo on these two pieces.

Are there broad points of agreement, or do the analyses take fundamentally different assumptions?

Are there prescriptions here, and if so do they agree or differ?

PS427: How facts backfire

2010-07-11T11:44:00.001-05:00

From the Boston Globe.

How facts backfire - The Boston Globe

Perhaps this helps explain why sensible debate about policy is so difficult, including issues of budgets.

Is there any chance the solution proposed at the end of the article could actually work?

This Week on ABC has been doing fact checking of guests in recent months. Any indication it has an effect? Can you think of any change that might make the fact checking more consequential?

PS427: Wisconsin candidates' cost-cutting plans don't add up

2010-07-11T11:39:00.001-05:00

Journal Sentinel does a little checking up on savings claims.

Wisconsin candidates' cost-cutting plans don't add up - JSOnline

Why is it so hard to produce credible savings, growth, tax claims? This applies equally to both parties.

PS427: State budget deficit swells to $2.5 billion

2010-07-10T17:59:00.001-05:00

From the Journal Sentinel:

State budget deficit swells to $2.5 billion - JSOnline

Review the actual memo here.

Prepare a quick briefing based on the memo. What elements of the budget stand out as most consequential?

PS427: New Jersey Budget, Christie vs Dems

2010-07-04T18:50:00.000-05:00

The New Jersey budget faced an $11 billion shortfall. Newly elected governor Chris Christie drew attention by taking on state employee unions, especially teachers, and pushed throw a budget with major cuts, numerous fee increases, and elimination of tax-rebates. Republicans are looking at Christie as a model for budget cutting while maintaining popular support. Dems are concerned.

This is a striking contrast with the situation in Illinois where little progress seems to be at hand in dealing with state bills that can't be paid. Or in California which as of today (July 4) still lacks a state budget.

Here are a series of excellent articles covering the NJ budget process and the current "near-deal" on limiting property tax increases, which may or may not be a done deal (see reservations by the assembly speaker.)

This is a GREAT overview of the entire budget process and negotiations. Bravo to reporters Claire Heininger and Josh Margolin for an article that covers the complexity so well.

Here is the article on the budget passing. Note the chart on where the money comes from and where it goes. I wish it were a little more detailed, especially on what state agencies spend what but otherwise useful information.

This is a piece that puts Christie's budget in the perspective of what previous governors did to bring the state to its current situation.

And here is where the property tax issue stands today, with an agreement in the senate and some uncertainty in the assembly.

Not all are happy, and here is a piece on groups opposing the budget deal.

Some earlier coverage in the run-up to the budget include:

State worker protests. (Note the likely cuts to state worker benefits in Wisconsin as well. Pensions and benefits are inviting targets. (Why?) And not just for Reps. Gov. Doyle recommended more or less the same increase in state worker contributions to retirement funds last year that GOPer Scott Walker now supports.)

Universities and colleges take $173M in cuts, plan tuition hikes. In what ways is that a good thing and a bad thing? Discuss.

Christie fighting with teachers unions.

Oh my! Christie urges towns to reject school budgets without a wage freeze!

Subsequently, 53% of such budgets are rejected. Quite an impressive show of support for the Governor's position. Quite a lack of success for the teachers unions.

Here is a comical attempt to spin the results in favor of the teachers unions.

And here is a good non-partisan overview of Christie's conflict with the teachers and the subsequent votes.

Wow. I could go on and on. The Newark Star Ledger deserves huge praise for their detailed coverage and for a page offering the entire chronology. I wish Wisconsin papers would follow their lead in coverage and organization of that coverage on their web pages. This is a model of good work.

Here is the Star-Ledger's overview page.

Read JUST THE HEADLINES on the overview page. Read from bottom to top so you see it in chronological order. Make note of the issues, areas of cuts and revenue increases, and ESPECIALLY how each interest group howls in protest when their ox is gored. Note also in the budget article above how Republican legislators are very troubled about voting for cuts to THEIR suburban school districts. Concern for YOUR ox is bi-partisan indeed.

This is textbook stuff about budget making. The most amazing part is how Christie marshaled the political skill to get the budget through the legislature, where Democrats control both houses, and how he had to struggle to maintain GOP unanimity of support for his plan.

I don't have a dog in this fight. There are good arguments on both sides of budget debates. But as just plain fascinating politics, this case in New Jersey deserves to be widely studied.

PS427: Illinois Has Stopped Paying Bills

2010-07-02T21:56:00.000-05:00

Is this Wisconsin's future?

Payback Time - Budget in the Red, Illinois Has Stopped Paying Bills - NYTimes.com

How bad can state finances get without elected officials actually solving problems?

PS427: A big day for economic analysis

2010-07-02T14:29:00.000-05:00

The latest employment data are out this morning, prompting a binge of analysis.

The NYT's Economix blog is particularly active with some excellent analysis and graphics. Here are the links:

Is job growth being underestimated? Maybe. This from the day before the new data arrived.

Is the recovery losing steam? Gloom. Note the focus on employment. There is much more to the economy than just jobs, so this is a rather narrow view. Looking more broadly might be worse or better, but at least look.

Comparing the recession with the previous ones since 1970. This includes one of the most elegant and clear graphics showing the depth of the current recession in terms of jobs lost.

Long-term unemployment is the distinctive mark of the current recession. Is this due to structural change in the economy, or as some argue the continuing extension of unemployment insurance? Would more have found a (probably lower paying) job if they didn't have continuing unemployment benefits to fall back on? Will the current GOP blockage of yet another extension of unemployment benefits ultimately force some to take a job less good than they would wish? And for bonus points, as a political matter, can GOP candidates successfully campaign on having "stood against more deficit spending" if it means they did so by blocking extended unemployment benefits? Can Dems campaign for extending benefits even if they must therefore take the blame for more deficit spending?

The 1981-82 recession was the worst post-war recession until this one. Is this one worse, even though unemployment rates hit higher peaks in 1982? And here is the full report that was the basis of the NYT Economix report.

PS427: Two Budget Analysis Sites

2010-07-02T14:15:00.000-05:00

Here are two sites that do interesting budget analysis work.

Leaning left is the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. We took a look at some of their work earlier.

And leaning right/libertarian is the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

Both have a variety of interesting analyses, and it is useful to compare how and why their conclusions sometimes differ (and where they agree.)

PS427: Stabilize the National Debt Yourself

2010-06-27T14:59:00.000-05:00

As we are talking about budget choices at both the state and federal levels, here is a nifty exercise in seeing what you care to cut to get the federal debt under control.

Ezra Klein writes about some of the issues here.

And more fun, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has the budget simulation here.

See what it takes you to get to 60% of GDP.

Discuss: What choices did you make?

What political obstacles would arise in getting your choices passed by Congress?

Who do you think should pay for reducing the deficit? The rich through higher taxes, the poor through reduced services, the elderly through Medicare and Social Security cuts, the middle class by removing income tax deductions for homes and state taxes, the military by ending defense spending as we know it? You choose, but explain your choices.

PS427: Soaring Welfare Spending?

2010-06-26T09:55:00.000-05:00

The Heritage Foundation has a new report arguing against a substantial increase in welfare spending.

The report is linked here.

Be sure to read the reference notes at the end as well. Click the link at the end of the report to reveal the references.

Discuss: What is "welfare"? What programs does it include and what are not considered welfare even though they are social spending (such as social security or Medicare)? Why make these distinctions?

Why didn't the welfare reforms of the Clinton presidency "end welfare"?

How significant is the growth in this category of spending? How much of the budget is devoted to these programs?

What is the state role in welfare spending and how do states differ in their payments for welfare programs?

What are the policy goals Heritage seeks to promote through guts to welfare spending?

PS427: The Anti-Stimulus, State Responsibility and WFA

2010-06-23T22:53:00.000-05:00

Ezra Klein at the Washington Post is an interesting journalist with a wonkish policy focus. This week he published a piece on state budget problems as the "anti-stimulus", amounting to a huge amount of money not being spent that can equal or even exceed the size of the federal stimulus package.

See his article here.

Some reader's subsequently object (quite correctly) that federal aid to the states amounts to enabling their bad budget management and just encourages them to delay confronting the basic shortcomings of their budgeting. Klein raises that issue and presents some counter evidence, along with a link to an academic analysis of the state budget short fall and its roots in unemployment levels:

That link is here.

And finally, what are the roots of government (state and federal) deficits and can't they be readily cured by eliminating Waste, Fraud and Abuse (WFA). The public seems to think so. See this piece by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

Link to opinion about WFA here.

Discuss:

Is Klein's empirical argument one that both lefties and righties should (in principle!) be able to agree on, even if they differ on policy solutions? Or is there an underlying ideological debate about the fundamental point Klein is making, which means that no such empirical agreement is possible?

What role do you think public attitudes play in state and federal efforts to address budget deficits and revenue?

Why does the public continue to believe that such large portions of government revenue is wasted and therefore could be cut without any consequence?

If it is so easy to do, why has NEITHER party made significant headway in cutting spending? (Consider the record of the 1990s and the federal surpluses that resulted as both a positive and a negative example.)

PS427: State budget cuts: across the board, and at cross-purposes

2010-06-23T22:13:00.001-05:00

Link:

State budget cuts: across the board, and at cross-purposes

Almost every state has suffered budget shortfalls in the wake of the 2008 recession. How states have coped with cuts is varied and of varied effectiveness.

Discuss: Why do states find it difficult to adopt effective budget cutting strategies?

Why are some states more successful than others in dealing with budget problems?

Will these cuts be restored once the economy recovers or are they likely to result in permanent reductions?

Which budget areas of state government are "easy" to cut and which are "hard"? Why?

Why don't they just cut "waste, fraud and abuse" to solve the budget difficulties?

WisconsinEye 2010 Campaign Overview

2010-06-17T18:50:00.003-05:00

The video link is here.

I review the 2010 election campaigns in Wisconsin with Steve Walters at Wisconsin Eye.

PS544: Booth's map at Museum of London

2010-06-04T10:03:00.002-05:00

Booth's map of London is written up in the New York Times from last month. The Galleries of Modern London at the Museum of London has a show up with the original maps. The Times story is a pretty nice writeup.

Thanks to Flowing Data for bringing this to my attention. Flowing Data is an excellent site for data visualization examples and inspiration.

PS544: Charles Booth's map of London poverty

2010-05-27T01:11:00.000-05:00

A good color reproduction of Booth's map is available from the University of Michigan here.

My favorite spot when in London is Half Moon Street, just north of Green Park, next door to Buckingham Palace. Shockingly the Queen has not invited me to come over for tea. Not exactly a neighborhood of poverty in those days or these.

A very pretty large scale version of a segment of the map is here.

You can also see and download several of Booth's volumes at Google Books. Here is one.

Here are two of Booth's earliest reports presented to the Royal Statistical Society. (These are at JSTOR so you will need access to link to the articles.) Article 1 and Article 2

A slightly later address by Booth to the Royal Statistical Society is here. (Also JSTOR.)

PS544: Charles Booth's measure of poverty

2010-05-27T00:24:00.002-05:00

Booth Classification	Description of class
A	The lowest class which consists of some occasional labourers, street sellers, loafers, criminals and semi-criminals. Their life is the life of savages, with vicissitudes of extreme hardship and their only luxury is drink
B	Casual earnings, very poor. The labourers do not get as much as three days work a week, but it is doubtful if many could or would work full time for long together if they had the opportunity. Class B is not one in which men are born and live and die so much as a deposit of those who from mental, moral and physical reasons are incapable of better work
C	Intermittent earning. 18s to 21s per week for a moderate family. The victims of competition and on them falls with particular severity the weight of recurrent depressions of trade. Labourers, poorer artisans and street sellers. This irregularity of employment may show itself in the week or in the year: stevedores and waterside porters may secure only one of two days' work in a week, whereas labourers in the building trades may get only eight or nine months in a year.
D	Small regular earnings. poor, regular earnings. Factory, dock, and warehouse labourers, carmen, messengers and porters. Of the whole section none can be said to rise above poverty, nor are many to be classed as very poor. As a general rule they have a hard struggle to make ends meet, but they are, as a body, decent steady men, paying their way and bringing up their children respectably.
E	Regular standard earnings, 22s to 30s per week for regular work, fairly comfortable. As a rule the wives do not work, but the children do: the boys commonly following the father, the girls taking local trades or going out to service.
F	Higher class labour and the best paid of the artisans. Earnings exceed 30s per week. Foremen are included, city warehousemen of the better class and first hand lightermen; they are usually paid for responsibility and are men of good character and much intelligence.
G	Lower middle class. Shopkeepers and small employers, clerks and subordinate professional men. A hardworking sober, energetic class.
H	Upper middle class, servant keeping class.

Wall's first ad against Feingold

2010-02-09T22:12:00.001-06:00

YouTube
- "Fed Up"

Notice the themes here and speculate about how widespread this theme will be in 2010.

DSCC urges quick offensive

2010-01-26T13:08:00.001-06:00

DSCC urges quick offensive for 2010 - POLITICO.com Print View

Discuss: If you were a Dem candidate/manager are these the questions you would use against Republicans? If you were a Republican candidate/manager, how would you respond if these were used against you? And is it just me or do these sound like questions that might have come from last summer but which are now outdated (or come from 1964 or 1933??)

G.O.P. Seeks to Widen Field of Play

2010-01-25T10:18:00.001-06:00

G.O.P. Seeks to Widen Field of Play in Fall Elections - NYTimes.com

This is the huge payoff of pro-Republican national forces: candidate recruitment.

Also see the sidebar on primaries to watch.

And on the Dem side, Beau Biden decides it is a bad year to be part of a political dynasty. Negative recruitment. And note Dad's fine performance over the weekend blurting out his son's plans then getting the Delaware paper to retract the story. And now...

McCain Faces Primary Challenge

2010-01-23T12:09:00.001-06:00

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Hayworth says he will challenge McCain � - Blogs from CNN.com

Discuss: Is this the legacy of the Tea Party for Reps? Will it energize a new wave of participation or fracture the party at a time it could be poised for rebirth? Given the AZ Rep party, what are the chances he can beat McCain in the primary?

Obama Calls Team From 2008 for Races in Fall

2010-01-23T12:01:00.001-06:00

Obama Calls Team From 2008 for Races in Fall - NYTimes.com

Plouffe Op-Ed in Washington Post

Too late to get started on this? How about in November after the VA and NJ elections?

Discuss: How much can be done at this point and from a DC center rather than locally? Is it too late for candidate recruitment? Does success in 2008 mean Plouffe is equally adept at state races in 2010? If you are a Rep, what do you do next? If you are a Dem what do you do?

New Media and Campaigns

2010-01-23T10:56:00.002-06:00

You are insane if you are in politics but not following this carefully. You are missing a huge opportunity if you are not actively participating in it. Both parties have exciting developments so there is room for everyone to find a niche and play.

How the Republicans Won the Internet--Washington Post

Goldstein & Franklin on Corporate Campaign Decision

2010-01-23T00:32:00.002-06:00

A few thoughts on the Supreme Court's "Citizens United v. FEC" decision.

Supreme Court and Corporate Advocacy

2010-01-21T21:00:00.001-06:00

First the legal analysis:

And then the two sides get their say

The Court's ruling is here, though it may load faster from here.

Discuss: How broad is this decision? Will it affect only federal elections, or state also? What is a "corporation" within this context? What limits still apply to corporate political spending? How is this different from what corporate Political Action Committees (PACs) could do already? If you were CEO of a corporation, say Bank of America, would you authorize corporate money to be used to advocate the election or defeat of an incumbent member of Congress? Would you advocate in an open race? Who is helped and who is hurt by this ruling? Why?

Making Sense of Polling

2010-01-21T20:26:00.004-06:00

I gave a talk at the Capitol last week for legislators and staff on "Making Sense of Polling".

Here is the video link at WisconsinEye is here.

And my slides are here.

Your candidate just lost. What do you say?

2010-01-19T22:46:00.001-06:00

Coakley Pollster Defends Campaign Against White House

Discuss: Better or worse than silence? Better or worse than blaming your own candidate? Despite CYA, is the analysis right or wrong about what moved voters?

Dems on HCR: Now what?

2010-01-19T18:18:00.001-06:00

CongressDaily - Democrats Consider Backup Plans

Discuss: If Brown wins, the Dems have about 10-15 days with 60 votes in the senate. Enough? How bad does it look to force the bill through prior to seating Brown? Would failing to pass anything look worse?

Mass Sen Finger Pointing (Dems only)

2010-01-19T18:03:00.001-06:00

Coakley adviser memo: D.C. Dems 'failed' Coakley - Ben Smith - POLITICO.com

Dem Party Responds to Coakley memo

Ahhhh. And the votes aren't even counted yet.

Discuss: Could a better campaign have saved Coakley? If she miraculously wins, how bad do these folks look? What accounts for the sudden crashing of Coakley and the surge for Brown? Can a seat ever be taken for granted? Is there a just God?

Marquette example of research/teaching spinoff

2010-01-12T11:36:00.001-06:00

Lab learns to predict gas demand - JSOnline

This is a really nice story of how university research can both create a business and provide valuable training for students.

Discuss: What aspects of this business make it work in a university setting? What types of business might not be as well suited? How could this scale up if it left the university? Why do students who get involved in this kind of project get better jobs when they graduate, as discussed near the end of the story? Is it them, or the job, or something about both? Could such enterprises become significant in the state economy or are they niches that have little prospect of real growth and impact?

BTW: The Neumann campaign tweeted a link to this. Why? Should Walker and Barrett have done the same if they saw it first?

Becoming Obama's Voice

2010-01-12T11:14:00.001-06:00

Obama speechwriter Ben Rhodes is penning a different script for the world stage - washingtonpost.com

This is a nice biographical look at how you can work in the west wing in 10 years.

Discuss: How big a role do the social advantages of being from the upper east side play? Did attending Rice take Rhodes off the fast track compared to attending an Ivy? How did he get his start in DC and why did that work for him? Is his policy knowledge deep enough? If you are Rhodes, why do you not want this story to appear, and why do you want it? (There is a West Wing episode on the perils of notoriety for staffers, if you want some entertainment.)

Midterm talking points

2010-01-11T14:49:00.001-06:00

A nice article by Ron Brownstein with talk from David Axelrod with the Dem view.

National Journal Online - White House Readies Aggressive Midterm Push

A three short comments from the power house team at Public Opinion Strategies expressing the evidence for the Republicans:

On GOP Message

On Gloomy data for Dems

On Obama approval and the midterms

Discuss: Given the history of midterms, can a presidential party talk its way out of a midterm referendum? If the economy grows in the first three quarters, will that upset Republican campaign plans based on a "failure" of the Dem/Obama stimulus efforts? If you were a Rep strategist, what would your fallback be if GDP grows 4%? If you were a Dem strategist, what would your fallback be in GDP declines in the 2nd quarter suggesting a "double dip" recession?

Wisconsin’s economic recovery has begun

2010-01-06T13:10:00.002-06:00

Wisconsin’s economic recovery has begun - BizTimes

Discuss: Implications for Gov. Race.

P.S. Here is the Wisconsin unemployment trend in perspective. Unemployment is not necessarily the best indicator of economic recovery, but is certainly not irrelevant to the question.

Neumann kicks off new year

2010-01-04T20:28:00.000-06:00

Neumann calls for term limits, other reforms - JSOnline

After a very quiet fall, GOP Gov candidate Mark Neumann has started the new year with a five point plan for reforming Wisconsin government.

Discuss: Are these the best 5 points to lead with? What practical impact are they likely to have? What campaign strategies will they support in opposition to Walker or Barrett? How would you use these to push your candidate?

Preparing for Redistricting

2010-01-03T22:34:00.000-06:00

Politics Magazine |
Preparing for the Ten Year Storm

Interesting overview of both party's plans for redistricting.

Neumann to shake up campaign

2009-12-08T18:11:00.001-06:00

Politics Blog: Neumann to shake up campaign

Interesting that this is now being publicly discussed. The campaign has not developed a strong and consistent voice in social media, at least, since Neumann entered the race. Rumors of a shakeup have been around for several months.

Discuss: 1) If you are the candidate, is it a good idea to announce a shakeup or do you dismiss questions about your campaign staff? 2) Has the weak Neumann campaign operation helped the more well developed Walker campaign appear dominant? 3) Will there be pressure on Neumann to get out of the race, as was the case with Walker in 2006? 4) Do contested primaries help or hurt the eventual nominee?

A 20-Something Makes a Mint

2009-12-04T11:25:00.001-06:00

A 20-Something Makes a Mint (and Sells It to Intuit) - Question - NYTimes.com

This is a very nice interview with insight into why startups can find opportunities and how they market themselves very efficiently. Note also the monetization strategy, still a weak spot with lots of internet startups.

I like it that he's 29. Why not think of your 20s as the time you build your business or your career into a powerhouse. A long slow climb may work for lots of people, but there are opportunities if you seize them. Note this quote from Patzer:

Once you have a successful business, it sort of demystifies the world. It gives you all the confidence in the world that you can set your mind to something and do just about anything. It gives you this rock solid self-confidence that helps in personal interactions and helps in selling your vision of the company to investors and new employees.

Roth announces race against Kagen

2009-11-20T17:30:00.002-06:00

WisPolitics.com

Dems have had a hard time holding the Green Bay congressional district. Steve Kagen's win against a formidable opponent (John Gard) in 2006, and his reelection in a rematch against Gard in 2008 have given Dems hope that this district might stay with them for a while.

Now, State Rep. Roger Roth (R-Appleton) has sent a fundraising letter making it clear he will likely be a candidate for the Republican nomination.

Discuss: 1) What advantages as a candidate does Roth enjoy? 2) Is the location of his district a plus, minus or no effect for the race? 3) Read his fundraising letter. What does it say about his campaign? 4) Edit his letter to improve the message. 5) Draft an alternative announcement for a Republican candidate running against Kagen. 6) How should the Kagen campaign respond to Roth's entry into the race? 7) Find out how much money Kagen has raised, spent, and has on hand. 8) How liberal is Kagen's voting record? How often does he defect from the Dem majority? What is his support for Obama? What key votes has he cast that might be the basis of an attack along the lines Roth's fax implies will be his focus?

WI has an AG race too!

2009-11-15T17:39:00.001-06:00

WisPolitics.com has the story. There is a Democrat, former DNR Secretary Scott Hassett, running against incumbent Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen. The WisPolitics.com story discusses the results of a poll by Democratic polling firm The Mellman Group that suggests Van Hollen is weaker than many assume.

The polling memo is here.

Discuss: 1) Do the poll results surprise you? Why or why not? 2) Does the Van Hollen campaign response work? 3) Write 3 different responses to the poll from Van Hollen's perspective. 4) Why doesn't the Mellman poll memo mention Dem Scott Hassett's favorability or name recognition? Give two good reasons. 5) What crosstab would you most want to see from the Mellman poll?

Barrett announces, GOP Responds

2009-11-15T16:26:00.002-06:00

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is now officially in the race for Governor.

Let's go to the video:

The text of the Barrett announcement is at

Scott Walker's campaign was quick to respond here.

And what of new media?

Barrett has a website, but no Twitter or Facebook presence yet. Only using email. They do offer the announcement text (linked above) and a contribution page.

Mark Neumann's web page is silent on the announcement. His occasional Twitter stream has this:

47 degrees in Green Bay... couldn't be a better day to beat the Cowboys at home. Go Pack!about 2 hours ago from web

Which undoubtedly reflects what most in Wisconsin are thinking about today.

The Walker campaign however was quick on the attack:

RT @scottwalkerhq More Doyle - @NationalJournal gave Tom the Taxer a “liberal” rating of 88%about 1 hour ago from HootSuite
RT @jillbader Tom the Taxer talking about property tax? Scott Walker 0% increase – Barrett raised 4.4%about 2 hours ago from HootSuite
RT @jillbader Just like Doyle…Barrett, on whether he will "moderate his views" as gov.: "I wouldn't say moderate.” 9/3/01about 3 hours ago from HootSuite
This is how serious I am about holding down property taxes:http://ow.ly/CvIIabout 3 hours ago from HootSuite
Headed up 2 Green Bay 4 the Packers/Cowboys game. Go Pack Go! #packersabout 3 hours ago from HootSuite
UR vote: Barrett – More taxes, more spending. My plan – less taxes, more jobs. #believeinwiabout 4 hours ago from HootSuite

And the parties? Here is the WisGOP Twitter stream:

RT @WKOW: RT @jhersch_wkow What does the Republican Party think about Barrett's candidacy for governor? Hear reax on 27 News at 10!about 2 hours ago from TweetDeck
Doyle and Barrett: More taxes, more spending. No thanks! Watch the video: http://bit.ly/1fhzu9about 3 hours ago from TweetDeck
Liberal Barrett, aka "Tom the Taxer" to run for Doyle's third term. http://bit.ly/49Ztlaabout 3 hours ago from TweetDeck

And the Dems?

Another poll and chance to show who you support in 2010:http://bit.ly/4xlEqb19 minutes ago from TweetDeck
Show your support for Mayor Barrett in today's online poll:http://bit.ly/2qcKpw29 minutes ago from TweetDeck

Walker and WisGOP were quick and on message. Also note the opposition research the Walker campaign was immediately ready with and quick to put out. No doubt about how they want the public to see Barrett. Neumann not engaged with Barrett today, though quotes from Neumann camp did appear in the Journal-Sentinel story this morning driving home the negative "career politician" point.

On the Dem side, the Barrett new media campaign (all of 5 hours old at this point) consists of a website and little more. Dem party support was much slower than the GOP operation which was quick, repeated and on message. Dems did put up a statement on their website, but failed to Tweet about it.

Discuss: 1) Will today's new media stream change the election outcome? (Answer "No") But 2) If you were running each of these campaigns and parties, how would you feel about your performance today? Why? 3) Deconstruct the Barrett candidacy announcement. What does it reveal about his approach? 4) Deconstruct the Walker response (and related Tweet stream.) 5) How effective are each in achieving their goals? 6) Where do each suggest potential vulnerabilities?

A Republican on every ballot

2009-11-15T00:01:00.000-06:00

A Republican on every ballot - washingtonpost.com

A party being rebuilt from the ground up.

The New Untouchables

2009-10-21T15:06:00.000-05:00

Op-Ed Columnist - The New Untouchables - NYTimes.com

Tom Friedman on who has the advantage in the current workforce. What value-added are you bringing to your political science degree? Here is a nice summary from the end:

As the Harvard University labor expert Lawrence Katz explains it: “If you think about the labor market today, the top half of the college market, those with the high-end analytical and problem-solving skills who can compete on the world market or game the financial system or deal with new government regulations, have done great. But the bottom half of the top, those engineers and programmers working on more routine tasks and not actively engaged in developing new ideas or recombining existing technologies or thinking about what new customers want, have done poorly. They’ve been much more exposed to global competitors that make them easily substitutable.”
Those at the high end of the bottom half — high school grads in construction or manufacturing — have been clobbered by global competition and immigration, added Katz. “But those who have some interpersonal skills — the salesperson who can deal with customers face to face or the home contractor who can help you redesign your kitchen without going to an architect — have done well.”
Just being an average accountant, lawyer, contractor or assembly-line worker is not the ticket it used to be. As Daniel Pink, the author of “A Whole New Mind,” puts it: In a world in which more and more average work can be done by a computer, robot or talented foreigner faster, cheaper “and just as well,” vanilla doesn’t cut it anymore. It’s all about what chocolate sauce, whipped cream and cherry you can put on top. So our schools have a doubly hard task now — not just improving reading, writing and arithmetic but entrepreneurship, innovation and creativity.

View From Inside the Great Depression

2009-10-17T10:53:00.004-05:00

Talking Business - Benjamin Roth’s View From Inside the Great Depression - NYTimes.com

This is a very interesting piece by Joe Nocera in today's NYT. I think I'll buy the book.

Here are some pictures to go with the article. They show the decline and then rise circa 1937-38 of unemployment and the rebound of the stock market followed by a second large fall. Nocera has a nice discussion of the policy issues behind that increase of unemployment then and the implications for the current recovery.

And compare with now: (click on graph for full size)

2 Americans Share Economics Nobel

2009-10-12T12:07:00.001-05:00

2 Americans Share Economics Nobel - NYTimes.com

Our Big Ten colleague at Indiana, Elinor Ostrom, has won the Nobel Prize in economics. She is the first woman laureate ever for the economics prize. And she is the fourth political scientist to win or share the Nobel.

Bravo!

Teaching Students to Sift Mountains of Data

2009-10-11T22:21:00.000-05:00

Teaching Students to Sift Mountains of Data - NYTimes.com

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. — It is a rare criticism of elite American university students that they do not think big enough. But that is exactly the complaint from some of the largest technology companies and the federal government.
At the heart of this criticism is data. Researchers and workers in fields as diverse as bio-technology, astronomy and computer science will soon find themselves overwhelmed with information. Better telescopes and genome sequencers are as much to blame for this data glut as are faster computers and bigger hard drives.

Political science doesn't yet have this problem, but there is no reason we can't or shouldn't go there. Every campaign contribution, every precinct vote return, every roll call vote. Every international conflict event. Every foreign investment. Every word of political news coverage. Every blog post. For all time.

And if you want to get teched up for graduate school in any field, or you want to move to silicon valley and make a billion, learn to handle large data.

For Twitter fans, search #hadoop to find fellow travelers who you can follow and who will point to you events and resources. Take a look at #mapreduce as well.

Wise Muddling Through

2009-07-31T17:25:00.000-05:00

Op-Ed Columnist - Wise Muddling Through - NYTimes.com

Nice-- and a nice allusion to "The Science of Muddling Through" article you read.

Why We Must Ration Health Care - NYTimes.com

2009-07-16T15:48:00.000-05:00

Why We Must Ration Health Care - NYTimes.com

This is a national policy issue, but is also implicit at the state level with Badger Care, for example.

If the amount we can spend on health care is not infinite, then how do we allocate a finite resource? Here is one way of thinking through those issues.

But are they politically acceptable? Which candidate will run on this platform? What constituent will vote for such a candidate?

Backward we go in Dairyland - JSOnline

2009-07-13T17:55:00.001-05:00

Backward we go in Dairyland - JSOnline

Full WPRI Article

WPRI is a "free market oriented" think tank, so assume a particular point of view. However, they produce analysis based on data and thoughtful argument, rather than empty rhetoric. Whatever the solutions might look like, I think the problems pointed out in this article are central to the future of the state. Republican candidate for Governor, Scott Walker, tweeted both these pieces. (On Twitter Walker is @scottkwalker and Mark Newman is @StrongWisconsin . So far as I know Gov. Doyle isn't on Twitter.)

Gov. Doyle's office responds:

Asked to respond, the office of Gov. Doyle, a Democrat, dismissed the Alabama comparison. Wisconsin ranked 24th for median wages, while Alabama came in 45th, in a 2008 Bureau of Labor Statistics survey that covers all occupations, Doyle's office noted.

While the WPRI points out that Wisconsin had zero job growth from 2000 to 2005, Doyle's office said that period includes the 2001 recession, which predates Doyle's stint as governor. Doyle took office in January 2003.

"Job growth improved beginning in 2002," Doyle's office said, citing BLS statistics that show 2.1% job growth from 2002-'05 and 1.5% in 2005-'07.

The governor's office concedes that Wisconsin job growth lagged the national average under his watch, but said Wisconsin "is comparable to other Great Lakes states in recent history."

"They cherry-pick statistics," Doyle spokesman Lee Sensenbrenner said of the WPRI report. "This is a right-wing group that's putting together an attack."

National Journal Online - The Six Most Dysfunctional State Governments

2009-07-13T17:39:00.000-05:00

National Journal Online - The Six Most Dysfunctional State Governments

Fortunately, Wisconsin isn't on this list (yet).

University students not shy about asking profs to reconsider grades

2009-07-08T18:10:00.001-05:00

University students not shy about asking profs to reconsider grades

This article is more than a little harsh on students, given that my experience at least is that they are describing a distinct minority yet the story makes it sound like the majority.

However, I'd be interested in your reaction and thoughts. There are a couple of quotes from the article that I think DO hit home, even if there is a good bit of exaggeration:

"The point is that we are in the business of higher education, not mediocre education," Moses wrote in an e-mail while traveling in Europe. "This sounds elitist but the challenge of global competition to the U.S. way of life does not call for trying hard, it calls for performance"

And:

"Too many students don't know why they are in college," engineering physics professor Moses wrote in his e-mail. "Too many don't know how to study. Too many have completely incorrect expectations. It is a system that is badly broken and not for a single reason. It is a system problem. The bottom line is that the U.S. future in the so-called knowledge economy is doomed with the students we are now producing as graduates. Companies locate factories in China and call centers in India not only because the workers work for less. The workers are also better qualified. If that is an exaggeration today, it will certainly become reality in a decade."

I doubt that my generation had any better idea of why we went to college than does yours. (Faculty often forget that.) Many of us had a great time socially while doing ok in classes. Some lost their way and flunked out. And a few found direction and excelled (not just in grades but in a focus and direction for their lives.) I don't think faculty can command students to be in the third category-- you have to find it for yourself. I don't think I've encountered an example of the third category begging for grades, and perhaps surprisingly I rarely get begging from those who are failing.

Take a look at the comments on the Cap Times article as well. An interesting set of perspectives.

Pollster.com: Palin's Base and Beyond

2009-07-08T17:51:00.000-05:00

Three poll related analyses, two mostly inside the party and one outside.

Pollster.com: Palin's Base

Palin's Problem Outside the Base

Palin: First Reactions

Let's not dwell too much on this story-- just hard not to pay some attention.

Palin's career one surprise after another: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

2009-07-08T17:46:00.000-05:00

Palin's career one surprise after another: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

Another example of great local coverage. This is a long look at Palin's history in Alaska politics written as only local reporters are able to do.

Palin returns to work, defends decision to resign: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

2009-07-08T17:45:00.000-05:00

Palin returns to work, defends decision to resign: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

When you want to learn about a national politician, it is good to go to their home-state papers. The Anchorage Daily News has had superb coverage of Governor Palin since before she was the VP nominee. Last summer it was great to read accounts of her performance as governor that were written prior to the glare of the national media (and the distortion that brings-- both pro and con) and stories written before the reporters had a clue she would become a national figure.

Now in the wake of her resignation announcement, it is good to go back to those who know her best for the local story.

Sarah Palin in vanityfair.com

2009-07-03T15:35:00.000-05:00

Todd S. Purdum on Sarah Palin | vanityfair.com

This article was the talk of the week until Gov. Palin upstaged it with her resignation announcement today.

Long, but interesting look at Palin and the GOP splits.

Up Front: Closed Meeting Budget

2009-06-22T21:17:00.003-05:00

The budget was passed by both houses after extended private negotiations among the leadership and individual members. In this segment of Up Front, Jay Heck, executive director for Common Cause Wisconsin, complains about the lack of openness and transparency in this process. See the video here.

I expect many legislators would argue that open meetings stifle the negotiation necessary to reach agreement on complex issues, such as the budget. Legislators need to give as well as get and public meetings make that difficult. The result might well be stalemate rather than transparency.

Others, such as Common Cause, would say that is exactly the problem. The private deals are not defensible on their own merits, and so can only be agreed too when the public is banned from watching. Or to put a conservative spin on it, the growth of government comes from the unwillingness of legislators to ever give up "goodies" and both earmarks and protected programs are the consequence. This holds whichever party is in control because the constituent pressures are so strong when it comes to local benefits.

My question: would "real" open meetings resolve anything? Would private deals just move to other venues (cell phone calls?). Are private goods given to individual legislators the necessary lubricant for legislation? And consider the alternative: Could a member of the Wisconsin legislature win election and reelection by consistently refusing to deal for projects or policies that are particularly beneficial to their districts? Should they try?

Up Front: Gov. Doyle's Job Rating and GOP Opportunity

2009-06-22T20:51:00.005-05:00

Up Front's second story of the week. Governor Doyle's job approval ratings have fallen and two polls produced opposite results for trial heats against Scott Walker and Mark Neumann. Where does this polling put the Governor for a 2010 reelection campaign? What opportunities does this present to the GOP challengers? See the video here.

Let's take a look at Gov. Doyle's job approval ratings that are behind the comments on Up Front. First, overall approval and disapproval:

The amazing bit of this chart is how approval peaks just in time for the reelection in 2006. Up to the fall of 2006 the Governor's net approval was negative. It was the campaign that boosted him, whether through the quality of his campaign, a failure of Mark Green's campaign, or national pro-Democratic forces. Since the reelection, however, Gov. Doyle's approval has stayed in net-negative territory, converging only for a moment in late 2008 and since then plunging.

The decline in approval has come among both independents and Democrats. Republicans have never had a high opinion of the governor. But the drop among Dems as well as inds should be worrisome to the reelection staff.

As the story says, this opens an opportunity for the GOP, but it is one they have to find a way to exploit in the campaign, not one they can take for granted. Likewise, the Governor can campaign on handling difficult situations which in 2006 at least the public was willing to accept, even after the very difficult budgets of 2003-2004.

Question: How would you frame the campaign for either Doyle or the GOP? What is the strength for Doyle and what is the weakness for the GOP?

Up Front: Drunk Driving Legislation

2009-06-22T20:33:00.004-05:00

This week's Up Front has three worthwhile features. First is the prospects for change in Wisconsin drunk driving laws. See the video here.

This is an interesting problem because law enforcement and public health are on one clear side but popular culture and economic interests are on the other. It is tough for any politician to challenge both popular culture and economic interests at the same time no matter how devastating the consequences of drunk driving. The two legislators, Rep. Jeff Stone, R-Greendale, and Rep. Josh Zepnick, D-Milwaukee, give a good perspective on the status of the legislation and the difficulties in passing it.

If you've not been reading it, you should look over the Journal Sentinel series on drunk driving and its consequences. I was disappointed that the series didn't win the JS a Pulitzer this year.

Questions: Is it a reflection of good democratic representation that our legislature is NOT passing this legislation? Assuming a popular culture that approves of excessive drinking and wants mild penalties for driving drunk, should democratically elected politicians support this public preference, even if the cost is several hundred often innocent victims killed per year?

States Turning to Last Resorts in Budget Crisis - NYTimes.com

2009-06-22T18:23:00.001-05:00

States Turning to Last Resorts in Budget Crisis - NYTimes.com

Not news to anyone here, but the discussion (and the chart) of how states are coping with their budget problems is very interesting.

As I asked in an earlier post, how might we account for the variation in approaches to the budget crisis? The chart shows how many states have tried different things, but obviously there is a lot of variation. Why?

And a second question, which states have been hardest hit and which have escaped relatively lightly. Why the variation? Is it all economic or are there political differences across the states that also affect how states have been affected?

Up Front on the State Budget

2009-06-21T11:41:00.003-05:00

The June 14th show featured a discussion of the budget with a variety of perspectives. Worth watching here.

How can the state raise sufficient revenue to pay for services while not discouraging business investment in the state or individual incentives? Do policies that encourage businesses benefit the citizens generally or do they provide private gains primarily to company owners? Should the state subsidize business in either case?

The left argues that state services must protect the needy and provide valuable public goods, such as health care, education and environmental protection. How can the left provide revenue for such policies when the growth in costs outstrip the growth in revenue sources? Is it possible to base taxes on out of state interests (e.g. gas companies) to shield state taxpayers? Or can minority interests (e.g. smokers, who make up only 22% of Wisconsin citizens) be taxed at high rates while majority interests (e.g. sales or general income taxes) are shielded?

"Interest Groups" dominate lobbying at the capital. The also provide the bulk of campaign contributions. There is much talk of limiting that influence by public financing of elections. But these groups also represent crucially important constituencies in the state-- teachers, manufacturers, construction companies, agriculture, taverns (<;-) ). When is an interest group a "special" interest, and when does it represent a critical component of the state's economy and population which deserves to influence legislation? How would state government look if legislators were free to ignore all interest group activity? Would representative government be better, worse, or essentially the same?

Democrats in Legislature split over capital gains tax break - JSOnline

2009-06-21T11:22:00.002-05:00

Democrats in Legislature split over capital gains tax break - JSOnline

This split between the gas tax versus capital gains is quite interesting. The current split is between Democrats, rather than between the parties. Why?

What are these revenues for? Are they targeted to fund particular functions? Which?

What policy change was adopted several years ago that helped create the problem with funding this function?

How should particular functions be funded? Should the revenue be directly linked to the function or should all functions be paid for from the entire revenue pool?

Compare this with the traditional use of property taxes for K-12 education. How has education funding evolved over time? With what conseqences?

Democrats in Legislature split over capital gains tax break - JSOnline

2009-06-21T11:22:00.000-05:00

GOP nearing brink of generation gap - JSOnline

2009-06-21T11:08:00.001-05:00

GOP nearing brink of generation gap - JSOnline

This is a good treatment of the partisan generation gap, including comment from Wisconsin's Rep. Paul Ryan.

What factors make it difficult for Republicans to appeal to 18-30 year olds?

Does Obama's success with that group mean that a generation has now been permanently won over to the Democratic party or can this change? FYI: Ronald Reagan won the youth vote very strongly. Young voters don't always go to the Dem or liberal side-- historically they go with whichever party is ascendent at the time. Does then mean the current pessimism about Republican chances with the young is overstated?

State budget deal bought with earmarks - JSOnline

2009-06-19T14:16:00.001-05:00

State budget deal bought with earmarks - JSOnline

"Earmarks" have become a favorite topic of attack in DC and perhaps at home too. Why is that? Consider first why earmarks are so important to individual legislators. Consider second why legislators think attacking earmarks is good politics in light of your first consideration.

Recession pounds states' budgets

2009-06-19T13:35:00.002-05:00

Recession pounds states' budgets

Not that this is news to anyone, but here is a round up of the situation in the states.

See also the details offered here:

How does Wisconsin compare?

Do any common trends emerge across states? If so what? If not, why are states adopting different approaches?

Obama, Notre Dame, Mary Ann Glendon Debate

2009-05-04T14:52:00.001-05:00

MARY ANN GLENDON’S FAILED “HAIL MARY”:

"I am a longtime admirer of Mary Ann Glendon, a former Ambassador to the Holy See as well as a scholar and innovative thinker on women’s issues. However, I was gobsmacked by her recent decision to refuse a prestigious award from Notre Dame because, as she discovered, she would have to share a podium with the President of the United States."

Ramesh Ponnuru Comments

Crittenden Replies

Maggie Gallagher Comments

Crittenden Replies at NRO

David Frum adds a comment and observation on Obama:

"Let me add here a personal editorial comment. A large part of the secret of President Obama's political success is his self-presentation as calm, judicious, and fair-minded - and his ability to depict his opponents as intemperate and extreme. You'd think by now that Obama's opponents would have figured out this trick. You want to beat him? Great. Be more calm, more judicious, and more fair-minded. Don't be provoked. Don't throw wild allegations. Don't boycott. Don't lose your temper.

Instead, we get Anger Theater. It's not smart. And it's not working."

Stan Greenberg on Resurgent Republic Polling

2009-05-04T14:20:00.001-05:00

Stan Greenberg’s Open Letter to Ed Gillespie, Founder of Resurgent Republic, on Their Initial National Survey

"Dear Ed,

Congratulations on forming Resurgent Republic with the goal of replicating “on the right the success Democracy Corps has enjoyed on the left.” Like Democracy Corps, you are promising to become a resource for groups and leaders, enhanced by the public release of credible surveys and focus groups and, indeed, your first survey has been widely discussed and already used by Republican leaders. Well done.

You would probably be surprised if I didn’t have some reactions and advice to offer, as you explicitly state, you are “modeled on Democracy Corps.” Given your goal, I am perplexed that your first poll would be so outside the mainstream on partisanship"

After the Recession

2009-05-03T17:49:00.001-05:00

Obama on what comes next

"But part of the problem that we’ve got right now is that what it means to have graduated from high school, what it means to have graduated from a two-year college or a four-year college is not always as clear as it was several years ago.

And that means that we’ve got to — in our education-reform agenda — we’ve got to focus not just on increasing graduation rates, but we’ve also got to make what’s learned in the high-school and college experience more robust and more effective."

Jack Kemp

2009-05-03T15:47:00.000-05:00

Jack Kemp, Star on Field and in Politics, Dies at 73 - Obituary (Obit) - NYTimes.com:

"Mr. Kemp was secretary of housing and urban development under the first President George Bush and the Republican vice-presidential nominee in 1996. But his greatest legacy may stem from his years as a congressman from Buffalo, especially 1978, when his argument for sharp tax cuts to promote economic growth became party policy, one that has endured to this day."

I'd add that it was Kemp's outreach to African Americans in particular that set him apart from many in his party then and now. His constant focus on economic opportunity that crossed racial lines offered a chance for a Republican party that could appeal to black, and white and now-a-days to Hispanics. That could have transformed the party. The GOP could do worse than look back to Kemp for inspiration on tent building. Alas, he never won over a majority of his party to the promise of economic opportunity for all rather than mere tax cuts for their own sake. I have a soft spot for Jack Kemp.

P.S. From Kemp's "Letter to my grandchildren":

"The party of Lincoln, (i.e., the GOP), needs to rethink and revisit its historic roots as a party of emancipation, liberation, civil rights and equality of opportunity for all. On the other hand, the party of Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy and now Obama must put forth an agenda that understands that getting American growing again will require both Keynesian and classical incentive-oriented (supply-side) economic ideas"

GOP Big Tent/Small Tent

2009-05-03T15:34:00.000-05:00

Specter of Change:

"No one knows why the chicken crossed the road, but why Arlen Specter crossed the aisle to the Democrats is a matter of rather less mystery, if intense debate. The why is quite simple: Free-range Republican, he was about to lose next year's Pennsylvania primary by a large margin, a problem he solved by changing his voter pool. But it was the how that is rather more pertinent: He was under attack from conservatives in his own party, opening questions less of whether the good and the best can be enemies than of whether removing the mediocre turns out to be worth it when the result is the worst of all worlds."

GOP Lessons from NY20

2009-05-03T15:17:00.000-05:00

With a focus on tech issues.

"Though the result is different than we as Republicans may have hoped for, the NY-20 special election generated new levels of online activism on the Right that show that the conservative base is re-engaging in poltitics online in the Obama era."

GOP Outreach

2009-05-03T15:14:00.000-05:00

National Council for a New America Formed

WASHINGTON, D.C. – House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) today issued the following statement upon releasing a letter announcing the formation of the National Council for a New America, a forward-looking, grassroots caucus intended to bring together Congressional leaders with a national panel of experts.

“The National Council for a New America will engage with and empower the American people to develop innovative solutions that meet the serious challenges confronting our country. It is the right time to begin a thoughtful conversation about the future of this country.”

The World's New Numbers

2009-05-03T15:10:00.000-05:00

The World's New Numbers

Changing Demographics and the Future

Congressional Retirements etc, May 2008

2009-05-03T14:28:00.000-05:00

From CQPolitics: Who is going where?

A related article is here.

Coming Soon

2009-05-03T14:22:00.000-05:00

A Blog for UW-Madison Political Analysis